Disaster displacement risk modelling

Estimating the risk of future disaster displacement

Extreme weather events are displacing people worldwide at an increasing rate, a trend that our changing climate is expected to intensify. Understanding and quantifying the risk of future displacement at a global level is essential for assessing potential impacts and building more resilient societies to minimize the negative impacts of displacement on those displaced and the communities, countries and territories where they live.

IDMC has been working with numerous partners since the mid-2010s to put our data to use in estimating disaster displacement risk. Collaborating with diverse and respected partners allows us to use the most up-to-date data and methodologies for various components of displacement risk and apply strict scientific rigour and quality assurance in our models.

Our current consortium of partners includes the CIMA Foundation, ETH-Zurich’s Weather and climate risk group, the Nanyang Technological University - NTU Singapore, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), The United Nations University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and the University of Valencia.

Global Displacement Risk Model 2.0

IDMC and its partners developed an updated risk model to help governments and their partners to estimate potential disaster displacement so they can plan accordingly. The model incorporates the latest hazard scenarios, both optimistic and pessimistic climate change projections affecting their frequency and intensity and new exposure layers. It also factors in vulnerability beyond structural building fragility to include not only the risk of severe housing damage or destruction, but also the loss of livelihoods, to estimate the likelihood of displacement.

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Recent work on disaster displacement risk

Flood and Drought Displacement Risk in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan

Publication

Flood and Drought Displacement Risk in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan

This publication is a combination of two reports that describe new models for estimating potential disaster displacement risk. The first section introduces a novel flood displacement risk model, and the second a new model for drought displacement risk. Both were developed under the HABITABLE project in partnership with the International Center for Environmental Monitoring (CIMA Research Foundation) and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam for drought. The models focus in 3 countries in the Horn of Africa, specifically Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, where there has been significant flood and drought displacement. 

Estimating displacement risk using data-driven approaches

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Estimating displacement risk using data-driven approaches

Climate change is making weather-related events that trigger human displacement more frequent and more intense. It is also making communities more vulnerable and addressing the underlying drivers of displacement more urgent. In the Horn of Africa, countries are facing a future where extreme weather events, especially floods and droughts, are likely to occur more often. Without policy changes and investments today, these events could trigger millions of displacements in the region, from floods and droughts alone. Knowing where displacement might take place, and how many people are likely to be affected, can help policymakers minimise its negative impacts.

Previous IDMC work on displacement risk

Our latest disaster displacement risk model builds upon our earlier work with various partners to advance the topic. We contributed a key report on disaster-related displacement risk for the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in Sendai, Japan in 2015. Our subsequent model built upon the risk analysis developed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to assess future displacement risks associated with sudden-onset hazards. In the years since, we have published or contributed to various reports and articles on the topic and are piloting the latest model in multiple exercises worldwide.

Publication

Drought displacement modelling

Publication

Global Disaster Displacement Risk - A baseline for future work

Internal displacement associated with disasters is a global issue. There were 24.2 million new inter

Flood displacement risk: Assessment for Fiji and Vanuatu in current and future climate scenarios

Publication

Flood displacement risk: Assessment for Fiji and Vanuatu in current and future climate scenarios

As in many small island developing states (SIDSs), exposure to flood hazards in Fiji and Vanuatu is driven by the growing concentration of people and assets in low-lying urban coastal areas. Disasters affect ever more people in these areas, causing increasing harm to employment, housing and basic services such as education and healthcare.