Understanding and Estimating Displacement in the Northern Triangle of Central America



Understanding and estimating displacement in the Northern Triangle of Central America

25 - 26 September 2018 | Tegucigalpa, Honduras 

Versión en español aquí


Organised criminal violence associated with drug trafficking and gang activity has reached epidemic proportions in the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA) in recent years. In El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, IDMC estimates there were at least 432,000 IDPs as of the end of 2017, many of them driven from, and within, cities suffering the highest homicide rates in the world and levels of violence comparable with a war zone.
With increased attention to the violence, and associated factors such as poverty, inequality and weak governance, has come a growing awareness of the many ways in which gang violence forces people to abandon their homes in search of safety. However, most of the existing evidence on this form of internal displacement in the NTCA remains anecdotal, and data on IDPs – in terms of figures, locations, vulnerabilities and needs – is not collected through a harmonized approach to allow for comparison at regional level. There is, as such, a growing urgency to understand the phenomenon – the drivers, triggers, impacts and patterns – of internal displacement so as to provide the evidence base for operational and policy responses.
This September marks the end of the first year of IDMC’s project 'Understanding and estimating displacement in the NTCA', a two-year project financed by the United States Department of State's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration. We have been working with researchers and partners to develop a common conceptual framework of what constitutes internal displacement in the context of criminal violence in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. We have also consolidated existing data on the numbers, profiles, locations and needs of the most vulnerable IDPs in the region.
To take stock of the progress and challenges of the first year of the project, present our findings to date and position the project for an impactful second year, IDMC invites you to a two-day stakeholder conference and technical workshop in Tegucigalpa, Honduras. We will launch three comprehensive reports, one for each of the three NTCA countries, as well as a first iteration system dynamics model of displacement in El Salvador. Following a public launch of these findings with stakeholders, we will then hold a more technical workshop in which we will review and validate the conceptual framework using a system dynamics approach. We also hope to move towards establishing a regional data peer review group, defining topics and variables for this group to focus on, identifying relevant data sources, and drafting a work plan. A more detailed agenda is to follow.
IDMC looks forward to working with you to generate a more comprehensive understanding of displacement in the NTCA, a baseline for the unfolding action in the region, supporting people affected by and at risk of displacement.


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