We aim to produce data, evidence and analysis that is relevant for policy and operational responses. In order to do this, we need to adapt this information to the relevant spatial and temporal scales required by our partners.They want to know about displacements that have already occurred and, increasingly, the location, magnitude and cause of displacements that are likely to occur in the future. This means talking about risk.
For disaster displacement, we have adapted the probabilistic risk model developed by the United Nations in order to produce the first global displacement risk model. Instead of calculating the likelihood of economic losses or fatalities, our model estimates the risk of displacement. This tells us how many displacements are likely to occur, on average, each year, decade or century within a city, country or region. It also reveals which natural hazards are responsible for the risk (see figure below).
Additionally, we plan to update the risk model to analyse how displacement risk may change in the future due to the impacts of climate change as well as other demographic and socio-economic trends and processes.