COP28: What did it say about displacement and climate change?

The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) just concluded today in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and there was not a single day over the last two weeks where human mobility was not the focus of a side event or mentioned by a negotiator during a negotiation session as one of the greatest impacts of climate change on people and communities. And the negotiation texts formalise this recognition.

Some will say the decision text of the first global stocktake (a comprehensive assessment of the world’s progress on climate action and updated roadmap to enhance ambition to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement) adopted in Dubai is a good compromise between so many different country interests; some others will say it is weak and insufficient. It is not the purpose of this piece to comment on that.

From a displacement perspective, it is positive to see that the global stocktake makes clear references to displacement. It recognises the particular vulnerability of displaced populations, acknowledges efforts already made to respond to displacement and calls for governments and relevant institutions to make progress in averting, minimising and addressing loss and damage, including through measures related to displacement, relocation and migration. 

Such inclusion of displacement language in the global stocktake creates a “hook” to encourage and support governments to report on their progress to respond to displacement. It also provides motivation for governments to strengthen policies and commitments to avert, minimize and address displacement and related losses and damages in their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to be put forward by 2025. 

[Including displacement in the global stocktake] provides motivation for governments to strengthen policies and commitments to avert, minimize and address displacement 

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) welcomes the historic agreement on the first day of COP 28 to operationalise the Loss and Damage Fund and the inclusion of displacement and displaced persons in its scope. This will allow the Fund to provide finance to support vulnerable developing countries to implement measures and policies related to displacement, including by enhancing evidence and addressing data gaps.

While we welcome the financial pledges to the Fund already made by several countries (to track the pledges, click here), they are far from sufficient as of now. We need to see more ambitious efforts from developed countries to provide new and additional funding to make the Fund fully operational and able to respond to the scale of loss and damage.   

We look forward to continuing to provide our data and expertise together with our partners, and including through the Santiago network on Loss and Damage, to support governments in averting, minimising and addressing losses and damages related to displacement and the adverse impacts of climate change. 

IDMC and partner engagement at COP28 

Indeed, this progress did not happen without years of work from a wide range of stakeholders working on human mobility, adaptation, development, human rights or disaster risk reduction. As the data and understanding of the relationship between climate and human mobility has increased, so has the attention it receives in climate negotiations. IDMC has also ramped up its disaster displacement data and analysis as well as its participation in global climate discussions.  

Alice Baillat of IDMC speaking at the side event, Internal displacement, disasters and climate change: What role for development actors to support durable solutions, and to prevent and respond to loss and damage?, organised by IDMC, Secours Islamique France and Government of France, 5 December in the Climate Mobility Pavilion. Other panelists: Roberto Salvatierra (FILAC), Ghada Ahmadein (RAED), Altaf Abro (SIF Pakistan), Catherine Simonet (AFD), Enam Haque (Friendship). Photo: William Lebedel  

For the second consecutive year, negotiators and other participants have been able to meet and discuss the links between climate and human mobility at a Climate Mobility Pavilion during COP. Co-managed by the International Organisation for Migration and the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, the Climate Mobility Pavilion offered a diverse and dense program of over 40 events during the two weeks of COP 28. Human mobility was not limited to this pavilion as it was also the focus of many side events in other pavilions.  

As the data and understanding of the relationship between climate and human mobility has increased, so has the attention it receives at COPs 

IDMC, together with the Platform on Disaster Displacement and the European Union, organised a panel discussion at the UNOPS pavilion on “Addressing displacement: Lessons learned from effective partnerships” on 3 December, with speakers highlighting the importance of coordinated actions and integrated approaches to address the challenges of displacement in the context of disasters and climate change. They discussed different examples of past and ongoing projects including the Pacific Response to Disaster Displacement and the Project to Avert, Minimize and Address Displacement Related to the Effects of Climate Change. Over the last years, the European Union, including in its capacity as current chair of the PDD, has been particularly active in supporting IDMC and other partners in enhancing understanding and supporting governments to build capacity to monitor and respond to disaster displacement.   

IDMC also partnered with the Secours Islamique France and the Government of France, to organise  a side event “Internal displacement, disasters and climate change: What role for development actors to support durable solutions, and to prevent and respond to loss and damage?” on 5 December at the Climate Mobility Pavilion. It was the occasion to hear perspectives and experiences from Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America regarding the challenges affected communities and displaced people are facing due to climate change. Panelists also focused on the types of interventions used to respond to the immediate impacts of disasters and climate change and to support the development of durable solutions.

 

Speakers at the side event, Addressing displacement: lessons learned from effective partnerships", organised by PDD, IDMC and the EU at the UNOPS pavilion, 3 December. From left to right: Atle Solberg (PDD), Farah Kabir (ActionAid Bangladesh), H.E. Nathif Jama Adam (Governor of Garissa county, Kenya), Alice Baillat (IDMC), Mizan R. Khan (ICCCAD), Lebaiatelaite Gaunavinaka (Government of Fiji), Manuel Marques Pereira (IOM). Photo: UNOPS  

IDMC also recalled progress made on collecting data and evidence on disaster displacement at two other side events, one co-organised by the Arab Network on Environment and Development, the Norwegian Refugee Council and the League of Arab States on 4 December as part of the official UNFCCC program of side events, and one organised at the pavilion of the Democratic Republic of Congo by the Union of Economic and Social Councils and Similar Institutions of Africa.   We also discussed the need to further invest in filling remaining data gaps and generating evidence to inform policies and practices to minimize and respond to displacement in the context of climate change and disasters. 

The prominence of human mobility is also the result of the Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility, which brings together a growing number of representatives from UN agencies, NGOs, academia, and other stakeholders working on climate change and human mobility. Every morning, the Advisory Group met at the Climate Mobility Pavilion for daily coordination meetings, sharing updates on relevant events and negotiation sessions for the group, and working together to push for human mobility to be referenced in key negotiation texts related to loss and damage, adaptation and the global stocktake.  

Better understanding leads to better decisions 

Since 2008, IDMC has been committed to collecting data on, and providing analysis of, the scale, drivers, patterns and impacts of disaster displacement to inform policies and actions. We have reported an average of 22.5 million internal disaster displacements due to weather-related disasters between 2008 and 2022. Our socio-economic assessments help document the impacts, losses and damages suffered by displaced populations and their communities, in terms of access to education, health, livelihoods, housing and security. 

Since 2017, whenever information is available, we endeavor to collect data on housing destruction. This data could serve as a proxy for displacement when no other information is available (like evacuation), offering valuable insights into associated losses and costs within the context of disasters.

While data on disaster displacement offers insights into the past, it is inadequate for predicting and estimating present and future damages accurately. Since the inception of the initial Global Displacement Risk Model in 2017, we have been collaborating closely with partners to acquire more accurate data on the risk of future displacement, by integrating the anticipated impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of hazards. We hope to launch an updated risk model in 2024.