COP29: Key outcomes on displacement and implications for climate policy

The conclusion of the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Baku, Azerbaijan, left many participants frustrated. The lack of ambition was especially evident in the new climate finance goal, less than a quarter of the amount developing countries said they need. Blockages in negotiations also affected decisions on multiple issues, with key discussions postponed to the Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB62) or COP30 in Belém, Brazil in 2025.

Despite limited progress, COP29 yielded some outcomes related to displacement. Here are five displacement-related outcomes from COP and a preview of three issues requiring specific attention in 2025.

Alexandra Bilak, IDMC Director, speaking at the side-event “Building the Climate Mobility Agenda: What Role for Climate Action?“ at the Climate Mobility Pavilion during COP29.

The new climate finance goal: A missed opportunity for loss and damage but a partial recognition of vulnerable groups

Presented as the “Finance COP,” COP29 failed to deliver the ambitious New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance by 2035, as demanded by developing countries. Instead, developed countries committed to providing $300 billion annually by 2035 — less than 25 per cent of the request and far short of what is needed to support countries facing escalating climate impacts.

The NCQG also falls short as a financing mechanism for loss and damage, as it fails to include loss and damage as a sub-goal alongside mitigation and adaptation—a key demand of developing countries. Without this inclusion, there is a risk of further underfunding loss and damage or diverting adaptation funds, leaving commitments across all areas unmet. Incorporating loss and damage would have also ensured sufficient funding is mobilised for the Loss and Damage Fund, which requires clear financial commitments to become operational.

However, the final text “urges” Parties to promote the inclusion of vulnerable groups, including migrants and refugees, in climate finance efforts. Although internally displaced persons (IDPs) are not explicitly mentioned, this language creates a potential avenue for channelling climate finance to prevent and respond to internal displacement through the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage – which already includes displacement, planned relocation and migration in its scope – and other funding arrangements.

The Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) is now operational

The completion of the operationalisation of the FRLD at COP29 so it can begin financing projects by 2025 is a significant milestone. However, current pledges total $731 million, a fraction of the estimated $724.43 billion needed annually to address economic and non-economic losses in developing countries. Furthermore, these amounts do not account for displacement costs, which are often not accounted in loss and damage assessments. Governments must scale up pledges to the Fund, so that they can quickly turn into real support. 

Positively, the scope of the Fund remained unchanged in Baku, maintaining the inclusion of “displacement, relocation and migration” agreed at COP28. The Fund is an opportunity to finance prevention and responses to displacement, as well as durable solutions for people displaced in the context of climate change and disasters. It also recognizes displaced persons and migrants as beneficiaries of climate funding and encourages their participation in the design and implementation of supported activities. 

Supporting the Fund to address displacement will require further evidence on the scale, duration, and impacts of displacement, alongside more robust assessments of associated costs. IDMC and partners are committed to supporting these efforts, offering technical assistance to countries and contributing through mechanisms like the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage (SNLD).

Progress towards addressing the overlap between climate, conflict and displacement

In 2023, 82 per cent of conflict displacement occurred in countries with high climate vulnerability, yet these countries receive disproportionately low levels of climate finance. According to a UNHCR report, produced in partnership with IDMC and others, fragile states receive just $2 per person annually for adaptation, compared to $161 in non-fragile states. Addressing the nexus between climate change, conflict and displacement urgently requires increased investment and coordination.

The launch of the Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace, Relief, and Recovery in Baku is an important step towards outlining paths for addressing climate change, conflict, and humanitarian needs as interconnected challenges, including through the establishment of the Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub, a platform to integrate climate and peacebuilding efforts.

The Call acknowledges displacement as a critical issue, identifying its links to water scarcity, food insecurity, and land degradation. It also advocates for equitable resource management to address displacement, improved data and analysis on human mobility and enhanced efforts to protect displaced persons in the context of climate change.

The majority, 82 per cent, of conflict displacements in 2023 happened in countries with a very high vulnerability to climate change. Map: IDMC, 2024

Advancing displacement considerations in the adaptation and mitigation workstreams

Displacement also continued to gain attention in discussions related to adaptation and just transition pathways. COP29 made some progress on operationalizing the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), with negotiators agreeing to develop a maximum of 100 indicators to measure progress on adaptation under the UAE-Belém work programme. Mobility-related indicators, such as IDMC’s Global Internal Displacement Database (GIDD), are included in the current draft list. The final list of indicators needs to be completed by COP30 in 2025. It will be essential to maintain indicators that help monitor progress in addressing displacement and migration.

Although COP29 deferred a formal agreement on the UAE Just Transition work programme to COP30, its draft text highlights the importance of including migrants and IDPs in social dialogue. Recognising these groups’ unique challenges and contributions to the green economy is essential for ensuring that transition pathways are inclusive and equitable, and for avoiding risks such as arbitrary displacement or forced labour.

Rising visibility of displacement at COP29

Beyond the formal negotiations, human mobility is also becoming increasingly visible in the parallel events and discussions at COP29. In Baku, two dedicated pavilions—the Climate Change and Human Mobility Pavilion managed by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Climate Mobility Pavilion of the Global Centre for Climate Mobility (GCCM)—hosted numerous events. From loss and damage to adaptation, finance, data and technical support, the discussions explored displacement and other forms of human mobility in the context of climate change.

IDMC brought its expertise and actively engaged in Baku, advocating for displacement to be a key consideration in relevant negotiation workstreams. It also partnered with other organisations to develop joint messages for COP29, and coordinated daily briefings of the Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility. Together, we pushed for the inclusion of human mobility in relevant negotiation texts. We also organised and participated in several side events, emphasising the need for enhanced data collection and displacement risk modelling as well as analysing the nexus between climate change, displacement and conflict, or with loss and damage.

These activities reflect years of collective efforts to put human mobility at the centre of the climate agenda.

Alica Baillat (second person on the right), IDMC Policy Adviser, coordinating a morning meeting of the Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility to discuss the state of negotiations and their relevance to human mobility.

Looking ahead: Critical milestones in 2025

Parties deferred many decisions at COP29, leaving significant work for future sessions and meetings:

• Loss and Damage governance: The review of the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) and the first joint report of the Santiago Network and of the WIM Executive Committee will be both added on the agenda of SB62 in June. Strengthening the WIM’s role and clarifying the articulation between its main entities – the WIM ExCom, the FRLD and the SNLD - will be critical to responding to loss and damage effectively, including displacement and its impacts.  

• High-Level Dialogue on Funding Complementarity and Coherence: Scheduled for April 2025 on the sidelines of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings, this first dialogue aims to align the FRLD with other funding mechanisms. Ensuring human mobility features prominently in these discussions is essential to securing sustained and equitable support.

• Updating national commitments: Countries will develop or revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) by COP30. In spite of its relevance, displacement is largely overlooked in the current commitments, with fewer than one-sixth of NDCs and only half of NAPs making concrete provisions for addressing it. The revision process offers an opportunity to further integrate displacement into NAPs and NDCs with targeted measures. Existing guidance, such as the Technical guide on integrating human mobility and climate change linkages into relevant national climate change planning processes, developed by the WIM’s Task Force on Displacement, can support these processes.

While the UNFCCC provides a critical platform, addressing displacement requires collaboration and coherence with other global processes. Upcoming opportunities in 2025 include the 2025 Global Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction, the Global Forum on Migration and Development and the follow-up of the UN Special Adviser on Solutions to Internal Displacement, whose mandate ends at the end of 2024.

Displacement in the context of climate change and disasters is a multifaceted challenge that requires bolder commitments, cross-sectoral action and holistic responses. Strengthening evidence, facilitating access to finance and technical support, and integrating displacement into national and global policies will be pivotal to ensuring that displaced populations receive the protection and support they urgently need. These actions must be priorities for 2025 and beyond.