Drought displacement modelling

This report aims to provide a support tool for the humanitarian and development community to guide their understanding of existing data-driven methodologies in forecasting or comprehending the risk of future drought displacement episodes.

A literature review of 42 academic articles and open access documentation about models used in the humanitarian sector was conducted to synthesize the state-of-the-art of drought displacement modelling.

Its purpose is:

1) to document the strengths and weaknesses of current drought modelling approaches in which ten different modelling approaches have been identified,

2) to show the current state of data availability and existing data gaps in order to improve data collection for mobility variables and confounders of drought-related human mobility,

3) to expose current challenges that must be overcome from the modelling standpoint to build robust and reliable models and

4) understanding model limitations and constraints in terms of fit-for-purpose and application requirements, specifically through a deep analysis of the suitability of models to support evidence-based policymaking.

Finally, the report highlights some suggestions for improving current modelling methodologies.