Publication
10 October 2024
Flood and Drought Displacement Risk in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan
This publication is a combination of two reports that describe new models for estimating potential disaster displacement risk. The first section introduces a novel flood displacement risk model, and the second a new model for drought displacement risk. Both were developed under the HABITABLE project in partnership with the International Center for Environmental Monitoring (CIMA Research Foundation) and the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam for drought. The models focus in 3 countries in the Horn of Africa, specifically Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, where there has been significant flood and drought displacement.
The flood model aims to provide calibrated estimations of future movements, supporting the formulation of effective policies. The methodology incorporates a unique vulnerability assessment, considering factors often omitted in standard risk models, such as direct impacts on homes and livelihoods, and exploring indirect impacts on critical facilities and services. The assessment uses a probabilistic approach, integrating climatic, hydrological and hydraulic modelling to estimate the impacts triggering displacement.
The drought section describes the methodology and results that involve quantifying the link between drought hazard drivers and observed internal displacement caused by this hazard, projecting changes under climate-induced variations. The model for drought-driven displacement employs an impact-based approach with machine learning models, particularly decision trees.
