What’s next

What’s next

In 2025, the consortium is committed to advancing various activities while also promoting the outcomes of the 2024 iteration.

First, we will explore the incorporation of two new hazards. At the global level, we will work closely with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM) and University College London (UCL) to assess earthquake-related displacement risk. In parallel, we will pilot displacement risk assessment for volcanic activity in Guatemala. This project will serve as a test case for potential global scaling after further piloting in other regions, in collaboration with the University of Geneva. Additionally, the consortium aims to explore wildfire-related displacement risk in the coming months.

Second, led by UNU, the consortium remains committed to advancing vulnerability assessments using both new and existing technologies. We will continue literature reviews and explore statistical methods for computation, building on work by the CIMA Foundation for riverine floods. This includes refining methodologies to differentiate—while preventing potential double counting—between displacement risk due to uninhabitable residences and displacement driven by loss of livelihoods, education access, or critical services.

Lastly, the consortium will explore the possibility of downscaling the model to a more regional perspective to enhance the preliminary results obtained from a global scale for Small Island States, particularly for cyclonic winds and storm surges. This will run in parallel with our piloting of the "Impact Forecasting" initiative. Our aim is to estimate the number of people at risk of medium- to long-term displacement days in advance of a hazard becoming a disaster. This will be piloted and compared with ground truth data collected by IDMC on displacements and homes destroyed through their global monitoring.